The January 31 Florida Republican primary kicked off “the next phase” of the presidential race—a phase that will be distinguished by tens of millions of dollars in advertising.
All told, over $25 million was spent in the Sunshine State. The hallmark of the Florida contest was the advertising strategy of the pro-Romney forces. Together, the Romney campaign and the pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future outspent the pro-Gingrich forces by four to one. Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group’s calculation that 92% of all spots aired in the final week before primary day were negative (with more than two in three targeting Gingrich) became the defining fact of the Florida race.
At the same time, separate from the Republican primary activity, well-funded conservative groups launched the first shots of the general election by taking on President Obama. Americans for Prosperity spent nearly $4 million last month alone in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin on TV ads attacking Obama’s integrity and record on jobs. The Obama campaign responded with just under $2 million in ads in the same states. Crossroads GPS then launched another ad attacking Obama this week on national cable.
While the presidential campaigns will talk a lot about “expanding” the electoral map, advertising is reality and these buys provide our first and best read on which states will draw the most ad activity in the general election.
Florida also was the first contest to see significant TV advertising by Democratic interests: the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees spent $1 million on negative ads attacking Romney. This buy was a down payment toward a general election in which Florida will be the largest and most critical swing state of all.
From now through the 10-state Super Tuesday, two things will happen. First, the pro-Romney forces will deploy advertising in an effort to create and maintain momentum and snuff out their lesser-financed opponents. Even as he and his supporters were saturating the airwaves in Florida, Romney hit the air in Nevada, whose caucus is February 4. Restore Our Future also has advertised in Arizona, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Paul is on the air as well in Nevada and Minnesota, and the pro-Santorum Red, White, and Blue Fund just hit the air in Missouri and Minnesota. Still, it remains to be seen whether Santorum, Gingrich and their respective allies will have the resources to air significant advertising.
In the schedule of primary and caucuses through Super Tuesday, states in bold are general election swing states while states that are underlined are potentially competitive in the general election.
Kantar Media CMAG’S current estimate of which states will be competitive in the Presidential and Senate races:
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Kantar Media provides strategic advice and competitive intelligence to the world’s leading brands, publishers, agencies and industry bodies, helping them navigate and succeed in a rapidly evolving media industry. This includes analysis of paid media opportunities; counsel on brand reputation, corporate management and consumer engagement through owned media; and, evaluating consumers’ reactions in earned media. Kantar Media provides clients with a broad range of insights, from audience research, competitive intelligence, vital consumer behavior and digital insights to marketing effectiveness and online influence. Our experts currently work with 22,000 companies tracking 3 million brands in 50 countries. www.KantarMediaNA.com