By Diego Vasquez, Media Life
Published November 03, 2011
Media Life interview with CMAG President Kenneth Goldstein
CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC have all drawn huge ratings for Republican presidential debates this fall, and now spot television is about to start benefiting from next year's election. Spending on the 2012 primaries has already begun, with dollars trickling into some markets, and it's about to grow into a torrent. Analysts say that a minimum of $2.6 billion will be spent on TV over the next year, obliterating the record $2.3 billion in 2010. Right now the Republican presidential field sits at more than a dozen contenders, but over the next few months that will be whittled to just two or three. At the same time, President Barack Obama will begin spending on his reelection campaign, and he is expected to raise as much or more money as he and Hillary Clinton did combined during the lead up to last presidential election. Kenneth Goldstein, president at Kantar's Campaign Media Analysis Group, talks to Media Life about how much money will be spent, what percentage of that money will go to the presidential race, and why online still won't get that many dollars.
How much money will be spent on political advertising next year?
It's a wide range, $2.6 to $3.3 billion, just on TV. That's a wide range but it depends on how much money these folks raise.
When do you expect spending to start ramping up?
Well we're going to start to see spending in the primary races now. And then it will be increased and heavier spending for the primaries in the spring. Then from at least March on it will be an unrelenting barrage for the presidential race.
At this point a number of Republican candidates have held the frontrunner position. Do you expect that this will be a competitive primary season, like we saw in 2008, where the winning candidate does not move ahead until the end? What will that mean for advertising?
Do I think it will be as competitive as it was when Obama and Hillary went to June? Probably not.
It always ends up being between two people, but it has little implications for ad spending. If it's a competitive primary, they'll spend it against each other; and if not, they'll spend it against Obama.
How does it affect advertising if a Republican nominee is anointed early on in the primary process?
The money will shift to spending against Obama.
How much (percentage) of political ad spending next year will be on the presidential race and how much will be on state- and local-level races?
I think you'll see presidential spending north of $1 billion, and the rest depends on how competitive those other races get. North of 40 percent will be spent on the presidential race.
In 2008 there were two parties fighting hard for the presidential nominations; this year there is an incumbent. How does that impact ad spending levels?
Again, even though Obama doesn't have a challenger, he'll raise as much or more than he and Hillary did together in 2008. So I still think you'll see advertising, it will just be directed at different people.
How much more online spending will we see in this election compared to last? How will that be distributed online, and will one party spend more than the other?
I think both sides will spend online and spend more online, but they'll spend more on everything. It will still be a small percentage of the total spend, but certainly increasing. Both parties will be active online.
View the Media Life article here.