By Robin Bravender, Politico on March 25, 2012
Rick Santorum and his allies have waged a guerrilla ad war on Mitt Romney, targeting TV buys where airtime is cheap and conservative voters are abundant.
The strategy worked in states like Louisiana, Minnesota and Missouri – which Santorum won – and helped him mount serious challenges in battleground states like Romney’s native Michigan.
But that playbook will be put to the test when the race heads to a series of big states including California, New York and Texas. These states are not only home to some of the priciest places to buy TV ads, but there are fewer pockets of less-expensive cities for Santorum to target – a tough combination for a candidate who needs to ratchet up the proportion of delegates he picks up in each contest.
“These are very expensive states,” said Ken Goldstein, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group. And they include some top media markets: New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston and Dallas.
In Illinois, the pro-Santorum super PAC Red White and Blue Fund avoided ad buys in Chicago — another top 10 media market — focusing instead on smaller markets like Champaign-Urbana, Peoria and Rockford.
But that strategy isn’t likely to work in some of the upcoming primaries, Goldstein said. “There aren’t enough Rockfords in California.”
The Red White and Blue Fund ended February with just $365,000 in the bank, according to the most recent campaign filing. Santorum’s campaign had $2.6 million cash on hand at the end of last month after raising $9 million in its most successful month for fundraising. The super PAC and campaign say they’ve continued to bring in big checks this month, but their cash reserves likely still pale in comparison to Romney’s.
In contrast, Restore Our Future spent $9.9 million last month on ads attacking Santorum — more than the Santorum campaign raised overall. The super PAC ended February with $10.5 million in the bank; the Romney campaign ended last month with $7.3 million cash on hand.
In the coming months, the biggest delegate payoffs are New York and Pennsylvania on April 24, Texas on April 29, and California on June 5. With Santorum lagging far behind in the delegate count, he’ll need to fare well in those contests as well as the other, smaller states, to keep his longshot bid alive.
In the 2008 Democratic primary, President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton spent about $10 million and $5 million, respectively, on advertising in Texas alone, according to a 2008 study by CMAG and the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. Obama spent another $5.6 million on California ads, compared to Clinton’s $6.2 million in the Golden State. The Democrats’ schedule was different from this year’s GOP primary calendar, but the figures offer evidence that it’s pricey to compete in those states.
Santorum is facing long odds when it comes to the delegate count. According to the Associated Press, before Louisiana Romney has 563 out of 1,144 delegates needed to win the party nod. Santorum has 263 delegates, Newt Gingrich 135 and Ron Paul 50.
View the original Politico article online.